Sahm Rule Indicator
Real-time recession indicator
-0.03%
▼ -123.08%
No Recession Signal
Last Updated: July 1, 2026
Historical Data
About Sahm Rule Indicator
The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low. Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, it has identified every US recession since 1970 in real time, making it one of the most reliable recession signals available.