Sahm Rule Indicator vs Inflation Rate (CPI)

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.00%
-100.00%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26 Sep'26

Inflation Rate (CPI)

Consumer Price Index YoY change

4.1%
+3.29%
High Inflation
337 332 327 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26 Sep'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator Inflation Rate (CPI)
Current 0.00% 4.1%
Change -100.00% +3.29%
Status No Recession Signal High Inflation
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED CPIAUCSL
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated October 1, 2026 October 1, 2026