Sahm Rule Indicator vs Inflation Rate (CPI)

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.10%
-23.08%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.20 0.10 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26

Inflation Rate (CPI)

Consumer Price Index YoY change

4.3%
+8.10%
High Inflation
334 330 327 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator Inflation Rate (CPI)
Current 0.10% 4.3%
Change -23.08% +8.10%
Status No Recession Signal High Inflation
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED CPIAUCSL
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated May 1, 2026 May 1, 2026