Sahm Rule Indicator vs Consumer Confidence

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.03%
-123.08%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.14 -0.03 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26

Consumer Confidence

University of Michigan consumer sentiment

49.5
-7.13%
Very Pessimistic
56.6 50.7 44.8 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator Consumer Confidence
Current -0.03% 49.5
Change -123.08% -7.13%
Status No Recession Signal Very Pessimistic
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED UMCSENT
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated July 1, 2026 June 1, 2026