US National Debt vs Sahm Rule Indicator

US National Debt

Total US federal government debt

40.08T USD
+2.85%
Very High
40.1 39.5 38.9 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.03%
-123.08%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.14 -0.03 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26

Indicator Comparison

US National Debt Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 40.08T USD -0.03%
Change +2.85% -123.08%
Status Very High No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED GFDEBTN FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Quarterly Monthly
Last Updated August 27, 2026 July 1, 2026