Unemployment Rate vs Sahm Rule Indicator

Unemployment Rate

US unemployment rate

4.1%
-4.65%
Normal
4.4 4.3 4.1 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26 Sep'26

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.00%
-100.00%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26 Sep'26

Indicator Comparison

Unemployment Rate Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 4.1% 0.00%
Change -4.65% -100.00%
Status Normal No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED UNRATE FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated October 1, 2026 October 1, 2026