Sahm Rule Indicator vs US National Debt

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.07%
-153.85%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

US National Debt

Total US federal government debt

40.10T USD
+2.91%
Very High
40.2 39.6 38.9 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26 Sep'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator US National Debt
Current -0.07% 40.10T USD
Change -153.85% +2.91%
Status No Recession Signal Very High
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED GFDEBTN
Update Frequency Monthly Quarterly
Last Updated August 1, 2026 September 18, 2026