Sahm Rule Indicator vs National Debt to GDP

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.07%
-153.85%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

National Debt to GDP

US federal debt as % of GDP

122.6%
+0.02%
Elevated

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator National Debt to GDP
Current -0.07% 122.6%
Change -153.85% +0.02%
Status No Recession Signal Elevated
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED GFDEGDQ188S
Update Frequency Monthly Quarterly
Last Updated August 1, 2026 January 1, 2026