National Debt to GDP vs Sahm Rule Indicator

National Debt to GDP

US federal debt as % of GDP

122.6%
+0.02%
Elevated

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.03%
-123.08%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.14 -0.03 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26

Indicator Comparison

National Debt to GDP Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 122.6% -0.03%
Change +0.02% -123.08%
Status Elevated No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED GFDEGDQ188S FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Quarterly Monthly
Last Updated January 1, 2026 July 1, 2026